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Abediniangerabi, B, Shahandashti, S M, Ahmadi, N and Ashuri, B (2017) Empirical Investigation of Temporal Association between Architecture Billings Index and Construction Spending Using Time-Series Methods. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Quantitative methods; Construction spending; Architecture Billings Index; Time series methods; Temporal association;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001391
  • Abstract:
    Construction spending (CS) represents the level of construction activities in the United States. It has been widely used for evaluating and tracking the construction market. Evaluation of the construction market provides valuable information for construction firms to plan resources and make strategic business decisions. Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has been introduced as a potential leading indicator of construction spending. Correlation analysis and regression modeling have been used in the literature to conclude that ABI leads nonresidential construction spending up to 1 year. This paper argues that these methods are not the right methods for studying the temporal relationship between these two time series because they ignore autocorrelation among the values of each time series. In other words, the autocorrelation may result in spurious correlation between variables simply by coincidence. This is further confirmed in this paper showing that neither ABI nor construction spending are stationary, and therefore, correlation analysis and regression modeling could lead to wrong interpretations. The research objective is to empirically analyze the temporal association between ABI and construction spending using time-series methods. Unlike the findings indicated in the literature, the results of this research show that institutional ABI leads nonresidential construction spending only in higher lag lengths (12 months and longer). There was no evidence that commercial/industrial ABI leads nonresidential construction spending. The results also show that residential ABI leads residential construction spending up to approximately 3 years. Moreover, it is found that institutional and residential ABIs have long-term temporal relationships with nonresidential and residential construction spending variables, respectively. These results are validated through the creation of appropriate time-series models that are capable of identifying future trends in construction spending. The findings of this paper contribute to the state of knowledge by identifying and quantifying the temporal relationships between ABI and construction spending. It is expected that these findings will help construction firms identify future trends in construction activities. The identified trend in construction spending provides useful information to construction firms in making better strategic business decisions in the volatile construction market.

Barbachyn, S M, Devine, R D, Thrall, A P and Kurama, Y C (2017) Economic Evaluation of High-Strength Materials in Stocky Reinforced Concrete Shear Walls. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

D’Onofrio, R M (2017) CPM Scheduling: A 60-Year History. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Gurmu, A T and Aibinu, A A (2017) Construction Equipment Management Practices for Improving Labor Productivity in Multistory Building Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Hanna, A S and Iskandar, K A (2017) Quantifying and Modeling the Cumulative Impact of Change Orders. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Hasanzadeh, S, Esmaeili, B and Dodd, M D (2017) Impact of Construction Workers’ Hazard Identification Skills on Their Visual Attention. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Hyari, K H, Shatarat, N and Khalafallah, A (2017) Handling Risks of Quantity Variations in Unit-Price Contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Kamardeen, I and Sunindijo, R Y (2017) Personal Characteristics Moderate Work Stress in Construction Professionals. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Mani, N, Kisi, K P, Rojas, E M and Foster, E T (2017) Estimating Construction Labor Productivity Frontier: Pilot Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Park, J, Cai, H, Dunston, P S and Ghasemkhani, H (2017) Database-Supported and Web-Based Visualization for Daily 4D BIM. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Sunindijo, R Y and Kamardeen, I (2017) Work Stress Is a Threat to Gender Diversity in the Construction Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Tuchman, J L (2017) Why Journalism Matters. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Umer, W, Li, H, Szeto, G P Y and Wong, A Y L (2017) Low-Cost Ergonomic Intervention for Mitigating Physical and Subjective Discomfort during Manual Rebar Tying. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).

Zhang, Y, Minchin, R E and Agdas, D (2017) Forecasting Completed Cost of Highway Construction Projects Using LASSO Regularized Regression. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(10).